Item - 2016.EX18.7

The Executive Committee recommends that:

1.  City Council not support the development of a bid to host Expo 2025 in Toronto.

2.  City Council confirm that it remains open to the consideration of future EXPO bids including EXPO 2030, on their merits, and with input from City staff.

This report presents the results of a third-party Feasibility Study on hosting Expo 2025 in Toronto, commissioned by the World Expo Canada Bid Corporation (WECBC), as well as a Marketing Brochure recently released by WECBC. It also includes a Peer Review of the Feasibility Study, completed by HLT Advisory Services, and additional commentary and analysis by City staff, drawing in part on the recommendations of the Mayor's Advisory Panel on International Hosting Opportunities, and technical advice regarding capital infrastructure requirements provided by R.V. Anderson Associates Ltd. The Feasibility Study, Marketing Brochure, and Peer Review are attached to this report as appendices A, B, and C respectively.

The Feasibility Study and Marketing Brochure identify a number of high-level benefits of hosting Expo 2025 for the City of Toronto, including:

­-  a substantial boost to Toronto's economy, with an estimated increase of $3.3 billion to the City's gross domestic product (GDP), and job creation equivalent to 40,000 person years of employment;

­-  9 million incremental visitors to Toronto in 2025, contributing $3.2 billion in spending;

­-  a flood-protected Port Lands with complete servicing, and many new and revitalized legacy buildings, parks, and other natural areas;

­-  a significant contribution to affordable housing;

­-  a showcase for Toronto to demonstrate its environmental and smart city leadership;

­-  broader global visibility, and increased trade and investment; and

­-  inspiration for a generation of Canadians.

Expo 2025 has the potential to be the largest and most impactful economic and cultural event held in Canada since Expo '67.

However, based on a review of the materials provided, this report recommends that Council not support the development of a bid to host Expo 2025 in Toronto. While the Feasibility Study notes the potential for considerable economic and other legacy benefits as a result of hosting Expo, there are a number of significant challenges and risks related to staging an event of this scale and complexity in the Port Lands in 2025 that outweigh these advantages:

­-  Neither the Feasibility Study nor the Marketing Brochure confirm whether the Province of Ontario or the Government of Canada would support a bid to host Expo 2025 in Toronto, contribute financially to the event or related capital projects, or guarantee the finances of the Expo. The Mayor's Advisory Panel on International Hosting Opportunities is clear that the support of other orders of government must be obtained before proceeding with a bid to ensure certainty and mitigate risk during the bidding process, and in the run-up to the event. As an example, the Government of Canada withdrew its membership in the Bureau International des Expositions (BIE), the international organization overseeing World Expos, in 2013 and remains a non-member. BIE rules prioritize bids from member countries over non-members, and until such time as the federal government renews Canada's membership, Toronto will be unlikely to succeed in a bid to host Expo 2025.

­-  Very significant capital funding in the order of $6-7 billion must be made available by the City, provincial and federal governments for capital projects in and around the Port Lands between now and 2025. This funding is largely not yet committed, and Toronto's portion is not in the City's current capital plan.

­-  Staff have been advised and have concluded that it is highly improbable that the many major concurrent construction projects which are critical to hosting Expo – including but not limited to Port Lands Flood Protection, Port Lands servicing, East Bayfront Transit, a new RER Station at the First Gulf Development, the Gardiner East and Lake Shore Boulevard Reconfiguration, and the construction of the Expo site itself – can be successfully completed in time to host the event in 2025. The Feasibility Study relies on a number of major assumptions regarding the construction schedule for these complex projects, and there is a high risk that this schedule cannot be met.

­-  The extremely challenging construction schedule for Expo 2025 creates a very real risk of significant cost overruns. Any delays in construction scheduling will require increased funding to cover costs for a compressed project schedule. Considering the fixed dates for the opening of the Expo site, there will be no choice but to incur these costs to achieve timely and full completion – though even an increase in funding cannot fully eliminate the risk that the projects may not be completed on time.

Given these factors, the City cannot responsibly pursue a bid for the 2025 World Expo at this time without facing very significant financial, operational and reputational risks.