Item - 2022.PH35.14

The Planning and Housing Committee:

1. Received the report (June 20, 2022) from the Chief Planner and Executive Director, City Planning for information as background to the Municipal Comprehensive Review of the Official Plan with regard for A Place to Grow: the Provincial Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe (2020).

The Manager, Planning Research and Analytics, City Planning and the Project Manager, Strategic Initiatives, Policy and Analysis gave a presentation on Our Plan Toronto: Land Needs Assessment.

This report summarizes the findings of the Land Needs Assessment, a component of the Municipal Comprehensive Review of the Official Plan with regards to A Place to Grow: the Provincial Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe, 2020.

The Land Needs Assessment is a required study to determine the quantity of land required to accommodate forecasted growth to 2051. The work undertaken through the LNA is a critical component essential to informing the various components of the City's growth management and intensification strategy. The Land Needs Assessment study is undertaken to determine whether or not the municipality can accommodate the forecasted population growth, their housing needs and the land to accommodate that housing. The Land Needs Assessment study is also undertaken to determine whether or not the municipality can accommodate the forecasted employment growth, and to identify the amount of employment land required to achieve the objectives of the City's Official Plan and the objectives of the Growth Plan and the Provincial Policy Statement.

As part of the Land Needs Assessment ("LNA"), the Growth Plan population forecasts were translated into long-range projections of population by age and then into households by taking into account demographic factors and housing occupancy trends. The projected households were translated into demand for different types of housing at different points in time. To determine how much land is required for this housing, staff undertook a series of studies of housing potential across the city. The potential housing supply can be matched to the housing demand in each time period to identify the mix and range of housing required to accommodate the anticipated households.

It is noted that the policies of the Growth Plan represent minimum standards and within the framework of the Provincial policy-led planning system, decision-makers are encouraged to go beyond these minimum standards to address matters of importance, unless conflict arises with other policies of that Plan.

The Land Needs Assessment study conclusions are that there is more than sufficient potential housing in areas designated for residential development in the City of Toronto to accommodate the population growth anticipated by Schedule 3 of A Place to Grow, the Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe, 2020, ("Growth Plan"). The potential housing supply in the city is more than double the amount of housing required to accommodate the forecasted population growth between 2016 and 2051. The surplus potential housing stock after accommodating the population growth forecasted by the Growth Plan at 2051 is equivalent to almost forty years of potential housing supply.

This Study demonstrates long-term housing potential based on a citywide analysis of land and development opportunities. The Study also examines long-term housing demand and concludes that the city has more than enough development opportunities to build enough housing for the forecasted population growth. Yet there are short- and mid-term housing issues requiring concerted action now, related to affordability, construction, approvals, charges, interest rates and inflation. There remains a mismatch between the types of housing that people are seeking and the mix of housing types that are anticipated to be built in the short term. The City's has many initiatives underway to address these near-term housing issues.

The LNA determined where and how forecasted employment can be accommodated across the city, within the Employment Areas and Community Areas as described by the Province's Land Needs Assessment Methodology as well as the land use designations of the Official Plan. An analysis of regional economic trends contributed to an understanding of the municipal employment structure and the drivers of the city’s employment change. The LNA produced a better understanding of the regional labour force, employment rates and the sectoral composition by place of work. Combined, these factors help to build detailed employment projections by industry at small-area geographies, enabling the calculation of employment densities and future land needs.

The Land Needs Assessment study conclusions are that the City of Toronto can accommodate the forecasted employment growth as per Schedule 3 of the Growth Plan in areas designated for growth by the Official Plan. Toronto needs to retain its currently designated Employment Areas in order to accommodate the forecasted employment growth, and that these lands will need to intensify to accommodate projected growth.

It is acknowledged that other recommendations regarding the Municipal Comprehensive Review of the Official Plan will speak to the evolving form of potential growth and how the population and employment growth manifest through various land use policies that may represent other approaches for accommodating change while sustaining and building infrastructure to achieve complete communities. What is important at this stage of the conformity exercise is that the City can demonstrate that there is more than adequate potential to accommodate the forecasted growth. Policy recommendations including how to optimize for inclusion, climate adaptation and efficient use of land, among other goals, are part of the MCR and ongoing policy updates.